Monday, February 15, 2021

Bracketology 2021: Games thru Sunday, Feb. 14

First seed list and bracket since Saturday's NCAA top 16 reveal. 

Not many games tonight, but one of them will affect the top of the bracket -- Virginia at FSU. A Virginia win would push them past Villanova and onto the 2 line, and an FSU win may vault them onto the 4 line. The losing team should stay where they are as they both have a decent gap between them and the team directly below them on the S-curve and the loss will be in Quad 1A column.

Other notes:

There's been a pretty large gap between Baylor and the third overall seed for the last couple of months now, but the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game this weekend (assuming they also win their midweek game) is actually going to get quite close to the Bears. Ohio State is 8-3 in Quad 1 games, which is kind of nuts.

The Mountain West Conference is really exciting -- 4 teams clustered between seeds 8 and the first four out. Could be a 4-bid mid-major, which would be just wonderful to see.

Oregon seems to be righting the ship a bit with a pair of solid wins in the desert. Could this be another classic Dana Altman surge into the post-season?

Arkansas has impressed me all year, and their win over Missouri over the weekend has them in a great spot on the 6 line.

Drake did just enough to get the weekend split against Loyola Chicago, keeping their at-large hopes alive. They need to win their last 5 regular season games to have any degree of comfort heading into Selection Sunday, but KenPom only gives them a ~30% chance of doing so.

OverallSeedTeamConf.QualificationHBC ScoreW/L
1
1
GonzagaWCCConf. Champ100.93920-0
2BaylorB12Conf. Champ97.04617-0
3MichiganB10Conf. Champ94.02814-1
4Ohio St.B10At Large91.18417-4
5
2
IllinoisB10At Large90.30214-5
6HoustonAmerConf. Champ88.00116-2
7AlabamaSECConf. Champ86.95717-5
8VillanovaBEConf. Champ86.25313-3
9
3
VirginiaACCConf. Champ86.06415-3
10IowaB10At Large83.61415-6
11OklahomaB12At Large83.34813-5
12West VirginiaB12At Large82.94714-6
13
4
TennesseeSECAt Large82.08814-5
14TexasB12At Large82.03113-5
15USCP12Conf. Champ81.82217-3
16Texas TechB12At Large80.25214-6
17
5
CreightonBEAt Large79.92416-5
18WisconsinB10At Large78.82415-7
19MissouriSECAt Large78.59713-5
20Florida St.ACCAt Large78.03411-3
21
6
KansasB12At Large76.11814-7
22Virginia TechACCAt Large75.36014-4
23ArkansasSECAt Large75.12516-5
24ColoradoP12At Large74.77316-6
25
7
Loyola ChicagoMVCConf. Champ73.01016-4
26RutgersB10At Large72.80312-7
27BYUWCCAt Large72.71014-5
28PurdueB10At Large72.52313-8
29
8
ClemsonACCAt Large71.85113-5
30LouisvilleACCAt Large71.69211-4
31San Diego St.MWCConf. Champ70.50614-4
32LSUSECAt Large70.42813-6
33
9
UCLAP12At Large69.70114-5
34FloridaSECAt Large69.57810-5
35XavierBEAt Large68.29811-3
36OregonP12At Large68.17612-4
37
10
Seton HallBEAt Large67.10312-8
38VCUA10Conf. Champ66.73515-4
39Saint LouisA10At Large66.70110-3
40MinnesotaB10At Large66.55613-8
41
11
Oklahoma St.B12At Large66.48713-6
42DrakeMVCAt Large66.41518-2
43St. BonaventureA10At Large64.75110-3
44IndianaB10At Large64.53111-9
45
12
ConnecticutBEAt Large63.8879-5
46North CarolinaACCAt Large61.97712-7
47Boise St.MWCAt Large61.75815-4
48Colorado St.MWCAt Large60.41213-4
49ColgatePatConf. Champ62.1379-1
50UC Santa BarbaraBWConf. Champ57.17112-3
51
13
Western KentuckyCUSAConf. Champ55.83915-4
52BelmontOVCConf. Champ55.51221-1
53WinthropBSthConf. Champ53.21618-1
54ToledoMACConf. Champ53.17416-6
55
14
Abilene ChristianSlndConf. Champ51.61414-3
56Wright St.HorzConf. Champ51.40517-4
57Grand CanyonWACConf. Champ43.5549-3
58VermontAEConf. Champ42.9819-3
59
15
FurmanSCConf. Champ42.79910-7
60South Dakota St.SumConf. Champ42.76811-5
61LibertyASunConf. Champ42.09413-5
62SienaMAACConf. Champ41.4058-2
63
16
Texas St.SBConf. Champ37.54714-5
64Eastern WashingtonBSkyConf. Champ36.5029-6
65
16
James MadisonCAAConf. Champ32.94010-5
66BryantNECConf. Champ28.5099-5
67Prairie View A&MSWACConf. Champ24.5047-4
68Morgan St.MEACConf. Champ21.4329-5
691st outUtah St.MWCAt Large58.79013-5
702nd outRichmondA10At Large58.24910-4
713rd outMarylandB10At Large58.09610-10
724th outSMUAmerAt Large57.95911-4
735th outMississippiSECAt Large56.93712-8
746th outSyracuseACCAt Large56.74112-6
757th outStanfordP12At Large55.39313-8
768th outGeorgia TechACCAt Large54.10510-8
77
Receiving votes
Penn St.B10At Large53.5117-10
78Wichita St.AmerAt Large52.94010-4
79MemphisAmerAt Large52.81212-6
80St. John'sBEAt Large51.87013-8
81MarshallCUSAAt Large50.77212-5
82Saint Mary'sWCCAt Large50.22011-6
83Michigan St.B10At Large49.16010-8
84Louisiana TechCUSAAt Large48.64017-6
Note: Conference champs are my picks to win the conference, not necessarily the current leader of the conference
Conference Breakdown (Conferences not shown have 1 bid each)
B109
B127
ACC6
SEC6
BE5
P124
A103
MWC3
WCC2
MVC2

Regional Parity
Midwest (Indy)3434Midwest (Indy)
1Gonzaga12Baylor1
16Morgan St. vs. Prairie View A&MBryant vs. James Madison16
8ClemsonLSU8
9OregonXavier9
5WisconsinFlorida St.5
12Connecticut vs. Boise St.UC Santa Barbara12
4Texas Tech1615USC4
13Western KentuckyBelmont13
6ArkansasKansas6
11IndianaSt. Bonaventure11
3West Virginia1210Iowa3
14Grand CanyonVermont14
7Loyola ChicagoBYU7
10Seton HallMinnesota10
2Illinois57Alabama2
15LibertyFurman15
Regional Parity
Midwest (Indy)3434Midwest (Indy)
1Ohio St.43Michigan1
16Texas St.Eastern Washington16
8San Diego St.Louisville8
9FloridaUCLA9
5CreightonMissouri5
12North Carolina vs. Colorado St.Colgate12
4Tennessee1314Texas4
13ToledoWinthrop13
6Virginia TechColorado6
11DrakeOklahoma St.11
3Oklahoma119Virginia3
14Abilene ChristianWright St.14
7RutgersPurdue7
10Saint LouisVCU10
2Houston68Villanova2
15South Dakota St.Siena15

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