Bracketology 2021: Games thru Sunday, Feb. 14

First seed list and bracket since Saturday's NCAA top 16 reveal. 

Not many games tonight, but one of them will affect the top of the bracket -- Virginia at FSU. A Virginia win would push them past Villanova and onto the 2 line, and an FSU win may vault them onto the 4 line. The losing team should stay where they are as they both have a decent gap between them and the team directly below them on the S-curve and the loss will be in Quad 1A column.

Other notes:

There's been a pretty large gap between Baylor and the third overall seed for the last couple of months now, but the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game this weekend (assuming they also win their midweek game) is actually going to get quite close to the Bears. Ohio State is 8-3 in Quad 1 games, which is kind of nuts.

The Mountain West Conference is really exciting -- 4 teams clustered between seeds 8 and the first four out. Could be a 4-bid mid-major, which would be just wonderful to see.

Oregon seems to be righting the ship a bit with a pair of solid wins in the desert. Could this be another classic Dana Altman surge into the post-season?

Arkansas has impressed me all year, and their win over Missouri over the weekend has them in a great spot on the 6 line.

Drake did just enough to get the weekend split against Loyola Chicago, keeping their at-large hopes alive. They need to win their last 5 regular season games to have any degree of comfort heading into Selection Sunday, but KenPom only gives them a ~30% chance of doing so.

Overall	Seed	Team	Conf.	Qualification	HBC Score	W/L
1	1	Gonzaga	WCC	Conf. Champ	100.939	20-0
2		Baylor	B12	Conf. Champ	97.046	17-0
3		Michigan	B10	Conf. Champ	94.028	14-1
4		Ohio St.	B10	At Large	91.184	17-4
5	2	Illinois	B10	At Large	90.302	14-5
6		Houston	Amer	Conf. Champ	88.001	16-2
7		Alabama	SEC	Conf. Champ	86.957	17-5
8		Villanova	BE	Conf. Champ	86.253	13-3
9	3	Virginia	ACC	Conf. Champ	86.064	15-3
10		Iowa	B10	At Large	83.614	15-6
11		Oklahoma	B12	At Large	83.348	13-5
12		West Virginia	B12	At Large	82.947	14-6
13	4	Tennessee	SEC	At Large	82.088	14-5
14		Texas	B12	At Large	82.031	13-5
15		USC	P12	Conf. Champ	81.822	17-3
16		Texas Tech	B12	At Large	80.252	14-6
17	5	Creighton	BE	At Large	79.924	16-5
18		Wisconsin	B10	At Large	78.824	15-7
19		Missouri	SEC	At Large	78.597	13-5
20		Florida St.	ACC	At Large	78.034	11-3
21	6	Kansas	B12	At Large	76.118	14-7
22		Virginia Tech	ACC	At Large	75.360	14-4
23		Arkansas	SEC	At Large	75.125	16-5
24		Colorado	P12	At Large	74.773	16-6
25	7	Loyola Chicago	MVC	Conf. Champ	73.010	16-4
26		Rutgers	B10	At Large	72.803	12-7
27		BYU	WCC	At Large	72.710	14-5
28		Purdue	B10	At Large	72.523	13-8
29	8	Clemson	ACC	At Large	71.851	13-5
30		Louisville	ACC	At Large	71.692	11-4
31		San Diego St.	MWC	Conf. Champ	70.506	14-4
32		LSU	SEC	At Large	70.428	13-6
33	9	UCLA	P12	At Large	69.701	14-5
34		Florida	SEC	At Large	69.578	10-5
35		Xavier	BE	At Large	68.298	11-3
36		Oregon	P12	At Large	68.176	12-4
37	10	Seton Hall	BE	At Large	67.103	12-8
38		VCU	A10	Conf. Champ	66.735	15-4
39		Saint Louis	A10	At Large	66.701	10-3
40		Minnesota	B10	At Large	66.556	13-8
41	11	Oklahoma St.	B12	At Large	66.487	13-6
42		Drake	MVC	At Large	66.415	18-2
43		St. Bonaventure	A10	At Large	64.751	10-3
44		Indiana	B10	At Large	64.531	11-9
45	12	Connecticut	BE	At Large	63.887	9-5
46		North Carolina	ACC	At Large	61.977	12-7
47		Boise St.	MWC	At Large	61.758	15-4
48		Colorado St.	MWC	At Large	60.412	13-4
49		Colgate	Pat	Conf. Champ	62.137	9-1
50		UC Santa Barbara	BW	Conf. Champ	57.171	12-3
51	13	Western Kentucky	CUSA	Conf. Champ	55.839	15-4
52		Belmont	OVC	Conf. Champ	55.512	21-1
53		Winthrop	BSth	Conf. Champ	53.216	18-1
54		Toledo	MAC	Conf. Champ	53.174	16-6
55	14	Abilene Christian	Slnd	Conf. Champ	51.614	14-3
56		Wright St.	Horz	Conf. Champ	51.405	17-4
57		Grand Canyon	WAC	Conf. Champ	43.554	9-3
58		Vermont	AE	Conf. Champ	42.981	9-3
59	15	Furman	SC	Conf. Champ	42.799	10-7
60		South Dakota St.	Sum	Conf. Champ	42.768	11-5
61		Liberty	ASun	Conf. Champ	42.094	13-5
62		Siena	MAAC	Conf. Champ	41.405	8-2
63	16	Texas St.	SB	Conf. Champ	37.547	14-5
64		Eastern Washington	BSky	Conf. Champ	36.502	9-6
65	16	James Madison	CAA	Conf. Champ	32.940	10-5
66		Bryant	NEC	Conf. Champ	28.509	9-5
67		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	Conf. Champ	24.504	7-4
68		Morgan St.	MEAC	Conf. Champ	21.432	9-5
69	1st out	Utah St.	MWC	At Large	58.790	13-5
70	2nd out	Richmond	A10	At Large	58.249	10-4
71	3rd out	Maryland	B10	At Large	58.096	10-10
72	4th out	SMU	Amer	At Large	57.959	11-4
73	5th out	Mississippi	SEC	At Large	56.937	12-8
74	6th out	Syracuse	ACC	At Large	56.741	12-6
75	7th out	Stanford	P12	At Large	55.393	13-8
76	8th out	Georgia Tech	ACC	At Large	54.105	10-8
77	Receiving votes	Penn St.	B10	At Large	53.511	7-10
78		Wichita St.	Amer	At Large	52.940	10-4
79		Memphis	Amer	At Large	52.812	12-6
80		St. John's	BE	At Large	51.870	13-8
81		Marshall	CUSA	At Large	50.772	12-5
82		Saint Mary's	WCC	At Large	50.220	11-6
83		Michigan St.	B10	At Large	49.160	10-8
84		Louisiana Tech	CUSA	At Large	48.640	17-6
Note: Conference champs are my picks to win the conference, not necessarily the current leader of the conference
Conference Breakdown (Conferences not shown have 1 bid each)
B10	9
B12	7
ACC	6
SEC	6
BE	5
P12	4
A10	3
MWC	3
WCC	2
MVC	2

		Regional Parity
Midwest (Indy)		34	34	Midwest (Indy)
1	Gonzaga	1	2	Baylor	1
16	Morgan St. vs. Prairie View A&M			Bryant vs. James Madison	16
8	Clemson			LSU	8
9	Oregon			Xavier	9
5	Wisconsin			Florida St.	5
12	Connecticut vs. Boise St.			UC Santa Barbara	12
4	Texas Tech	16	15	USC	4
13	Western Kentucky			Belmont	13
6	Arkansas			Kansas	6
11	Indiana			St. Bonaventure	11
3	West Virginia	12	10	Iowa	3
14	Grand Canyon			Vermont	14
7	Loyola Chicago			BYU	7
10	Seton Hall			Minnesota	10
2	Illinois	5	7	Alabama	2
15	Liberty			Furman	15
		Regional Parity
Midwest (Indy)		34	34	Midwest (Indy)
1	Ohio St.	4	3	Michigan	1
16	Texas St.			Eastern Washington	16
8	San Diego St.			Louisville	8
9	Florida			UCLA	9
5	Creighton			Missouri	5
12	North Carolina vs. Colorado St.			Colgate	12
4	Tennessee	13	14	Texas	4
13	Toledo			Winthrop	13
6	Virginia Tech			Colorado	6
11	Drake			Oklahoma St.	11
3	Oklahoma	11	9	Virginia	3
14	Abilene Christian			Wright St.	14
7	Rutgers			Purdue	7
10	Saint Louis			VCU	10
2	Houston	6	8	Villanova	2
15	South Dakota St.			Siena	15